Among running backs, he ranks third in rushing fantasy points per game and first in receiving fantasy points per game. 4. John Bauer is a featured writer at FantasyPros. 52) Yards After Catch, 8.4 (No. That's not bad for a strictly objective measure as something as mercurial as receiver performance. 300 routes run). Only the Catch and YAC Scores are counted for targeted screen routes, because openness on those routes is due to play design far more than receiver ability. Brown trails in yards (306 to 282) but posted a better catch rate above expectation (+22.5% to +7.9%), although he saw 14 fewer targets than Thomas. Any idea where they get this data from? These statistics provide a detailed view of how a WR accumulates To account for this effect, Open Score is adjusted for the number of defenders exclusively "assigned" to a receiver. But what we have here is a backup thrust into a starting role due to injury, and a player who then produced like a star receiver over the final 10 quarters of the season. Here's the best-fit formula: N+1 TPRR = 0.062 + 0.671 * TPRR (R^2 = 0.41) The number of targets a player sees per route happens to be a very sticky metric. We've discussed Thomas' ability until we're nearly blue in the face -- although cardio while masked seems to have improved this writer's lung capacity -- but we're tasked with justifying one final appearance atop a list of excellent route runners. The model was trained and validated against all routes from every passing play from 2018 and '19, including both the regular season and the postseason. This site rocks the Classic Responsive Skin for Thesis. Over the past two seasons, LeVeon Bell averaged more routes run per game (33.0) than all of A.J. So how much insight can we gather from a wide receivers yards per route in his rookie year? Follow Mike on Twitter @MBandNFL. Will the Eagles' pass rush befuddle Patrick Mahomes? Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. What are advanced WR stats? For running backs, YAC Score accounts for about half of the overall score, with Catch Score the second largest component, followed by Open Score. What To Do About A Problem Like Dianne Feinstein? Next Gen Stats maven Mike Band crunches the numbers on seven crucial Super Bowl LVII matchups. For more from John, check out his archive orfollow him@TheBauerClub. Basically, Bell is playing almost a full quarter per game more than the next-closest running back. Two tight ends Evan Engram of the New York Giants and Zach Ertz of the Philadelphia Eagles top the list of receiver seasons with the highest separation over expected on short throws (5 air yards or less).5 Ertzs targets especially were high value. Backs typically run swing routes, check downs and screens, which don't require excellent route-running skills but do rely on yards after catch for success. The Vikings pulled off the biggest comeback in NFL history last week, but the Next Gen Stats analytics team says it wasn't the most improbable comeback of the season. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? Michael Thomas (3). To view standard stats, check out our WR Stats reports. Unlike our win-rate metrics for line play, there already are reliable statistics that do a good job of telling us who are the best receivers. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. Of course, Blackmon missed the first four games of the season for violating the NFLs substance abuse policy, and then received an indefinite suspension for again being in violation of that policy after the Jaguars eighth game of the year. The browser you are using is no longer supported on this site. Can Nick Sirianni successfully match wits with Andy Reid? Do you have a sports website? A receiver can win with inside leverage against an outside corner who is trying to keep him from going deep, leaving the defender in the dust as he runs across the field at a shallow depth. Look, there he is again! The defense is typically willing to allow an offense to throw to wide-open players short, then rally to make a tackle for a short gain. Another interesting feature of short-target SOE is that a players ability to consistently get open on short throws appears to be mostly nonexistent. An interesting note is how close a call it was between Thomas and Ridley for the top spot in the rankings, which should excite Falcons fans about the potential of the former Alabama star. 101st. He saw significant time in games sporadically throughout the year. [2]While there are some issues with survivorship bias here, Im not sure (1) how to get around them, and (2) that those concerns bias the results in a way thats more biased towards one of Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_2').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_2', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); To predict Year N+1 Yards per Route Run using Year N Yards per Route Run, the best fit formula is, N+1 YPRR = 0.843 + 0.474 * Yr N YPRR (R^2 = 0.21). After spending some time looking at our route data, I wanted to highlight a few of my favorite metrics that Ive found. The Next Gen Stats analytics team uses its newly launched Expected Return Yards model to identify the top 10 returners of the 2022 regular season. If we wanted to predict each players Yards per Route Run in 2014 [4]Ignoring the fact that Johnson is now a 49er, of course. We present them here for purely educational purposes. Ja'Marr Chase and Tyreek Hill each had two 30+ points performances. I did include sacks when calculating routes per team pass attempt, so that seems to be the only explanation. Also, there are several other factors considered in establishing the benchmark on each route. The assessment takes place a moment before pass release (0.2 seconds prior), because defenders read the shoulders of the quarterback at release and break on the targeted receiver. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. It is highly recommended that you use the latest versions of a supported browser in order to receive an optimal viewing experience. Over the past decade, among all players with at least 250 snaps in a single season, raw targets had a 0.95 correlation to PPR fantasy points for wide receivers and that number sat at 0.96 for tight ends. When looking at any metric or measurable, it is always best to marry it up with other available data points to paint a clearer picture. Introducing Receiver Tracking Metrics: How our new NFL stats can better rate pass-catchers, Fantasy football rankings for 2023 season, 10 fantasy football breakout players for 2023, Broncos pick up Jeudy's 5th-year rookie option, Bills ink vet Murray after passing on RBs in draft, Source: Ravens decline LB Queen's 2024 option, LB Barrett's 2-year-old daughter drowns in pool, Bengals' Ossai recovering from offseason surgery, Deion 'ashamed' after only 1 HBCU player drafted, Sources: NFL eyes May 11 to release schedule, Cowboys scout emotional as team drafts his son. Whats more impressive to me is that Tony Romo threw to Beasley on 26% of his routes, which is an extremely high figure. Who has the edge? At 6-feet, 226 pounds, Brown wins with size, speed and power. Although Sanders is likely still the WR2 on his team (behind Thomas in the pecking order), he shouldnt be treated as such for fantasy. The most important stat for us in relation to Diggs' post-route productivity: touchdowns. His YAC on hitches was second-best in the NFL, trailing only Keenan Allen. With NFL+, stay connected throughout the rest of the NFL offseason with special content from Training Camp, Hall of Fame, and more! Live From New York: Will AI Replace This Podcast. But we also see deep ball specialists like D.J. However, Thomas is ranked atop this group because of his three touchdowns scored on slants, and his catch rate of 87.9 percent is also best among any receiver with 10 or more targets in the NFL. And that makes sense, at least to me. Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have become quite proficient at the QB sneak. Find out who the leaders are in standard scoring formats and see which players are available in your fantasy football league. No, I'm a California resident looking for the California Consumer Privacy Act form. Previous post: Worst Passer Ratings In Every Year Since the Merger, Next post: The Top Quarterbacks And The Receivers They Threw It To. Brown, and Hunter Renfrow all ran at least 250 routes while also having at least 2.00 yards per route run. Thomas' air-yards-per-target average was higher on crosses than his aforementioned overall average (9.6 to 8.1), and his catch rate above expectation was second to only Lockett among those with at least 20 targets on crosses. Now, by definition, if yards per target is less sticky than yards per route run, than targets per route run has to be the stickiest. Who knows, but that at least explains why Jernigan was on the list. Follow Nick Shook on Twitter @TheNickShook. Julio Jones has ranked first in yards per route run in four of the past five seasons, and top-five in each of the past five seasons. Will the Cowboys and Packers invest in more star power at receiver? For instance, DeAndre Hopkins played on over 90 percent of his teams snaps in every game he played last year. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Having a high SOE in one season says very little about whether you will have a high SOE in the next.6 Short targets are also the only leaderboard where running backs make an appearance, owing to the dearth of targets they get deeper downfield. Among the three metrics YPRR, Y/T, and TPRR its Targets Per Route Run thats the most consistent from year to year. It is also important to keep an eye on the changing landscape that is the NFL. Again it seems instructive to compare Thomas to Jones. But if he never plays again, he have caught 83 passes for 1,201 yards in his final 16 NFL games, split between his rookie and sophomore seasons. Interestingly, among the three target depths, SOE on intermediate passes appears to be the most stable year to year. There are various versions of this metric -- and it is quite useful in some applications -- but there is a fatal flaw when applying the concept to pass-catchers, as tempting as it might be. RTMs are a set of four metrics we've named Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score, plus the overall combination of those three. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports. It helps paint a more complete picture of each receiver's skill set and . These include route type, depth of route, coverage type (Cover 3, Man 2 and so on), position at snap (wide, slot, tight, backfield), distance from sideline, time after snap, down/distance/yard line and whether or not the play featured play-action. Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. [1]I suppose one counter to that would be that Stills was competing with Jimmy Graham, Marques Colston, and the Saints obsession with throwing passes to running backs, while Johnson was competing with Continue reading jQuery('#footnote_plugin_tooltip_20827_1_1').tooltip({ tip: '#footnote_plugin_tooltip_text_20827_1_1', tipClass: 'footnote_tooltip', effect: 'fade', predelay: 0, fadeInSpeed: 200, delay: 400, fadeOutSpeed: 200, position: 'top center', relative: true, offset: [-7, 0], }); But putting the quarterbacks issue aside, the question today is a more global one. Beasley caught 72% of his targets in 2013; that sounds good, but its not out of line with the catch rate of a lot of other slot receivers. NFL footage NFL Productions LLC. With the help of player-tracking technology, the Next Gen Stats Analytics team set out to answer that exact question, decoding one of the key elements of an offensive play call by using player-tracking data to measure which routes pass catchers are running on any given pass play. The numbers that propelled Thomas to the top here were his yards, of course, but also his efficiency. The lone outlier there is Robert Foster, and his situation clearly changed from 2018 to 2019. The Next Gen Stats Team uses its draft model to identify the five best value picks in Round 1 of the 2023 NFL Draft -- including two Georgia defenders selected by the Philadelphia Eagles. Time Period. In 2017, I developed a concept now commonly called Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE). Stat. He was off-the-charts good in yards per target (13.9), but saw targets on just 9% of his routes run last year. 3. Perhaps its no surprise that in the ultimate team sport, assigning credit for something even as seemingly straightforward as separation is complicated. Wide Receivers (14) Titans quarterback Will Levis opens up about emotional draft day. Learn More. Super Bowl Champion: Los Angeles Rams. Latest on Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Tutu Atwell including news, stats, videos, highlights and more on ESPN Below, we'll reveal the top three receivers for eight different routes, and tell you why the No. Please see our Contributors and Sources page for data source details. Contextualizing routes at the league-wide level gives a macro look into the value of route classification. His reception total was also the most in the NFL on go routes (minimum 75 total targets, regardless of route). So while wed like more data, we should probably expect players who show the ability to separate above expectation on routes at these depths to continue to do so.7, Best and worst receiver seasons on intermediate passes as measured by separation over expected (SOE) per play, 2017-19. Copyright 2000-2023 Sports Reference LLC. Here's a visualization of route paths sorted by our predicted route type: For training purposes, the tracking data for the wideout model has been normalized such that all the pass catchers are to the left of the quarterback, with the rationale being that the route paths are symmetrical. Real-time route classification enables us to contextualize the passing game in new ways. However, hes also somewhat at a detriment for fantasy, in that he runs a low number of routes per game. Interestingly, Thielen ranked 10th-best in targets percentage while Diggs ranked 24th, which might help justify the ADP disparity (11th to Diggs 16th), but its not a given that Kirk Cousins will prefer Thielen to the degree Case Keenum had. REC. Tyron Johnson is the best receiver in the NFL according to Yards Per Route Run. And running routes in schemes designed by Sean Payton, a coach with a .630 career win percentage (208-131, third among active NFL coaches), probably also has a strong positive effect on his production. Now, by itself, that doesnt make Targets per Route Run a good metric. Who has the edge? For instance, short passes are, on average, associated with more separation than deeper passes because a defenders top priority is to avoid getting beat deep. 2021 Allen 2021 Amendola 2021 Austin 2021 Beasley 2021 Benjamin 2021 Brown 2021 Cobb 2021 Goodwin 2021 Gordon 2021 Green 2021 Hilton 2021 Hogan 2021 Hopkins 2021 Jackson 2021 Jones 2021 Jones 2021 Roberts 2021 Sanders 2021 Sanu 2021 Slater 2021 Stills 2021 Woods 2021 Watkins 2021 Brown 2021 Adams . However, he averaged only 6.3 yards target, leaving Johnson with a poor 1.56 yards per route run average. For Hopkins, 125 of his 257 came after the catch. Join our linker program. Cooper Kupp demonstrates some WR Drills to improve release, route running & creating separation in this edition of The Nike 11-Online Virtual Training Series. Johnson's target ratio is no joking matter. yards per route run by wide receiver ranks 2021. Green (32.8), Julio Jones (30.7), and Tyreek Hill (24.6). In some ways, TPRR is like completion percentage. So again, what numbers can we look at and believe we have a strong indicator of future success for wide receivers? Jones averaged 6.0 fewer routes run per game than Hopkins over this stretch. or on teams regularly employing multiple WRs on the field. Not only is there a significant advantage to hitting the 2.00 yards per route run threshold in ones rookie year, but there is also a clear difference when that wide receiver ran at least 250 routes his rookie year. The final model does a decent job of predicting separation at the catch point on a given play.4 We used its predictions as a baseline for performance and compared each receivers actual separation on a given play to what the model expected an average players separation would have been, given similar circumstances. Below are a few tables showing the breakdown and thresholds used during this process. Today, we are introducing another new machine-learning tool: the Route Recognition model, which classifies routes by type, in real time, with the help of player-tracking data. Let's see Thomas led all wide receivers in yards gained on hitches. Keegan Abdoo meticulously explains how this could significantly impact Andy Reid's offense -- and fuel Lou Anarumo's defense. This approach is able to estimate each individual's contribution to overall effectiveness, accounting for the presence or absence of other players around them. How will Josh McDaniels' Raiders and Robert Saleh's Jets address the gaping hole at quarterback? Davis was immediately utilized, earning a 71.6-percent snap share with 454 routes run. 32) Average Target Distance, 196 (No. His opponents surely are, but you can't say they weren't warned: Thomas makes it clear with his Twitter handle that he can't be guarded. 32 lingering post-draft questions: Will Lions have regrets? View 2022 Advanced Wide Receiver Stats including Yards After Catch, Average Depth of Targets, Catchable Passes, and more. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. To put that in perspective, he is currently the only player in the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016) to average over 3.3 yards per route in a season (min. 41) Yards Per Target, and 1.90 (No. Below are the 15 unique route types assigned to all route runners, based on their location when the ball is snapped. Using the Next Gen Stats Draft Model, Mike Band identifies eight prospects to target AFTER Round 1. Receiving stats on short passes for Michael Thomas, including separation over expected (SOE) and expected points added (EPA) per play. Only wideout routes are included (i.e., players aligned wide, in the slot or tight): How often a pass catcher runs a route can give us insight into strategy and tendencies at the league-wide, team and individual levels of the game. Those numbers are pretty underwhelming, to say the least. All three components generally work the same way. There is a 33% increase in the number of WR1/WR2 seasons for a wide receiver that hit 2.00 yards per route run when he also ran a minimum of 250 routes in his rookie year. Which QB makes the list? Yards per Target, of course, is very sensitive to outliers. Full list of Mr. Irrelevants in NFL draft history: Is Brock Purdy already the best final pick? Tired of Thomas yet? He leads all non-quarterbacks in fantasy points per game over the past two seasons. Cole Beasley may be the weirdest case in the group. With hitches, there's some uncertainty for cornerbacks: Is their man running a hitch or is it going to be a go (or fade) route? Thomas caught 87.9 percent of his targets, landing in the top five in that category. So which is it: elite talent, or elite situation? There arent too many surprises there, but it might be interesting to compare that list to the True Receiving Yards leader board. Its not very sensitive to outliers, which makes it sticky. The overall score correlates at 0.52. This shouldn't be thought of as falling short of a 1.0 correlation, because RTMs are hopefully doing a good job of subtracting the influences of context, as in routes, depths, coverages, double teams, quarterback skill and so on. Brown such a special talent? Regular-season passes greater than 15 air yards, minimum of 30 targets. Unfortunately, our models can't directly know the signal-callers pass progression (the sequence of reads he makes during each play), but they are aware of the route type, depth and time after snap of the pass release. RTMs also match up well with existing public benchmarks of receiver performance. What does that mean? Who were the best-performing wide receivers by route type? On average, wide receivers that hit 2.00 yards per route run and run at least 250 routes in their rookie campaign are 41% more likely to be a WR1 at any time during their career than a wide receiver that hit the 2.00 yards per route run threshold alone. We will report this metric as targets above expectation per 100 routes run (TAE100), which is simply the number of targets a receiver gains above an average receiver whenever he runs 100 routes. Tied-93rd. Hes ranked 22nd, ninth, and 13th in target percentage over the past three seasons. It was far below his 2020 form, which ended in him being one of the five most valuable wide receivers in the NFL, according to PFF WAR. Jones is usually on everyones list of the top wide receivers in the league, but he is rarely No. 1 in the latest NFL Football Power Index? Ignoring the fact that Johnson is now a 49er, of course. Explore sample . Basic Stats Advanced Stats Red Zone Stats Fantasy Stats. . Thats somewhat shocking and perhaps it explains why the number of Landrys short targets dropped by nearly half after he moved to the analytics-friendly Cleveland Browns. PFF's Fantasy Football Expected Points tool is primarily used for identifying potential over and undervalued players. Specifically, Atlanta ranks 11th-lowest in dropbacks per game over the past three seasons, while Houston, Pittsburgh, and the Giants all rank higher. He's no DK Metcalf (his 6-4, 229-pound former Ole Miss teammate), but that actually works to his advantage, as his 226 pounds are well-packed into his frame to allow him to box out defenders, catch the ball and then outrun them to the end zone, with a stiff-arm packed in as a complimentary parting gift. Go to Ratings. And compared to Atlantas Julio Jones a receiver whose natural talent and skill set are rarely questioned Thomas comes out ahead on both our separation and value metrics. 2023 NFL Enterprises LLC. Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, A.J. The metrics measure the degree to which the receiver exceeds or falls short of that benchmark. 1-ranked player for each was the best running that particular route. Looking at this historical data and also pairing it with metrics such as draft capital, breakout age, college dominator, etc. Steve Johnson was the anti-Stills. There isnt much evidence to support the idea that Mike Thomas is anything but an elite football talent. Have you ever wondered what sets George Kittle apart from Travis Kelce, or what makes A.J. On top of that, hes not playing a high percentage of his teams snaps in any game. The SPORTS REFERENCE and STATHEAD trademarks are owned exclusively by Sports Reference LLC. From 2010 to 2018, there have been 165 rookie wide receivers in the NFL who saw at least 20 targets in their rookie year. Our new Route Recognition model leverages this data as inputs into a model that assigns a route type to every eligible receiver on every pass play, including tight ends and running backs. Do Not Sell My Personal Information. . Metcalf ran a. Tracking fifth-year options for 2020 first-rounders: Which were picked up, and which were declined? Woods led all qualifying receivers in yards per route . AP MVP: Aaron Rodgers. Logos were compiled by the amazing SportsLogos.net. Some plays and situations lend themselves to a lot or a little YAC, so YAC Score doesn't measure mere yards but rather the yards the receiver was able to generate beyond the expected amount. Subscribe:iTunes|Google Play|Spotify|Stitcher|SoundCloud|TuneIn|RSS.
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