Though he faced more pressure downfield, Foles was still able to get friendly reads because of the variety of play-calling that Doug Pederson provided. Or write about sports? For his career, 10.8 percent of Breess throws have been to targets deeper than 20 yards downfield. What's the point of that? The following browsers are supported: Chrome, Edge (v80 and later), Firefox and Safari. Last year, that fell to 8.2 percent, the lowest mark of his career and second-lowest among starting quarterbacks. Drew Brees completed 67.7 percent of passes in his career. Outside of throws of 40-plus yards, Nick Foles ' accuracy was lacking. Could Stetson Bennett Be the Next Brock Purdy? BackCAST 2023: Is Zach Charbonnet Overrated? I'm not sure I disagree with your overall feeling - but the problem with your argument is its all based on completion percentage. For the Cincinnati Bengals, we ranked Andy Dalton rather than embarking on the pointless exercise of comparing Joe Burrows college stats to NFL equivalents (though if you wanted to see Burrows deep passing numbers, youd find them in PFFs 2020 NFL Draft Guide). NFL Passing (13). His scouting report says he struggles with the deep ball because he had a low completion percentage - its possible his receivers just stunk. If that doesnt put into context how we evaluate quarterbacks at draft time, nothing will. Excluding Breess 2020, the average QBR for passers with both an average air yards per attempt below 7.00 and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at least 20 air yards was 51.1, which is well below the overall league average of 60.4 since 2006. Drew Brees has a great deep ball, but he is limited. Deep Ball Completion Percent Leaders | StatMuse Are you equally skeptical of FOs other semi-subjective charting on broken tackles, drops, and pressures? Drew Lock weighs 228 lbs (103 kg). Brissett hit 51.5 percent of his deep throws (21+ yards), 16.1 percent above the league average (4th highest overall), but too often those big plays were ruined by one of his receivers. Plays where the receiver catches the ball but has it knocked out of his hands. For instance, suppose a quarterback throws an accurate pass of 40-plus yards. It appears to be a strong argument, unlike everything else you said. Sometimes the only way to have chance at a completion, due to the coverage, is to force the receiver to adjust to the ball. Cian Fahey, who charted every single pass every QB threw and used to write for FO, had this to say about Brissett: "Jacoby Brissett was the best deep sideline passer in the NFL in 2017, second best to the left sideline and fourth best to the right sideline. Joe Burrow (68.2%), 2. Career Stats. Consistently excellent deep accuracy was a rare commodity last season but Brissett was one of the best at creating big plays with his arm. In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by Hoodie_Sleeves. Michael Thomas, when healthy, is so good at running slant routes that the joke is he only runs slant routes. . New Orleans Saints (52) Birth State: Texas. Henderson ran track at LSU and recorded a 4.36-second 40-yard dash at the NFL combine. Do you have a sports website? The problem is that you can't even come close to evaluating the strength of the study with 2-3 gifs per QB. Brissett was known for his poor deep passing in college. Stephen A. Smith details why Lamar Jackson is better positioned for a Super Bowl run than Aaron Rodgers. So you're saying that accurate measurement of QB performance isn't possible then, because the QB can't be credited or criticized for making the smart play? I only skimmed a few results from a site search, but all the same. The success Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers had should not be a surprise, as they have consistently ranked as two of the absolute best downfield passers in the Deep Ball Project's history. DeSean Jackson being missing especially crippled Wentzs ability to win deep down the field regularly, and though his passing itself was solid, the production the offense had on these attempts was lackluster at best. Or write about sports? Not only he has better rate than Brisset, he gained an additional 550 yards in just 24 more attempts. Watson has the arm to make special deep passes, and while he made a lot of big plays, only three passers threw more interceptions on deep shots than the five Watson managed over the regular season. We have tools and resources that can help you use sports data. The Bruins Choke. Plays where the receiver stops or runs the wrong route. Does this tell us anything the respective DVOA splits don't already? Panama Jacksons True-ish Black Stories and Talking Freaknik, Im Not Gon Let You Play in My Damn Face. All logos are the trademark & property of their owners and not Sports Reference LLC. His accuracy was really good under pressure (ranking ninth-highest), and he had the most passing attempts and yards of any quarterback. Drew Brees had 80,358 passing yards over his career. This is consistent with research that shows passes to running backs as being less valuable than those directed to other positions. Drew Brees has not been elected into the Hall of Fame. Cian and John are the only two writers I know that chart every QB's accuracy and publish their data like this. On Baltimores side, it has recovered from a 14-point loss to Kansas City in Week 3 to win three straight, with QB Lamar Jackson playing more like himself in the recent win over Philadelphia though the Eagles late comeback against what is (on paper) one of the NFLs top defenses was concerning. He forced the second-most inaccurate completions with 12, and Marvin Jones caught seven of those passes. Stafford passed for six deep touchdowns but had 16 big-time throws, and he perhaps deserved a little more when it came to putting points on the board from his passes. Every Sports Reference Social Media Account, Site Last Updated: Monday, May 1, 2:31PM. at Note: Kizer taking care of the ball better than expected on deep passes is particularly notable since he very obviously had no ability to take care of the ball in the red zone, when the field got shorter. Payton also drew up a variety of play-action bombs, often with Brees rolling out, that gave Henderson and others time to get deep and Brees plenty of space to step into his throws. Heres another standout performance from a rookie passer, as Kyler Murray showed well despite not having a huge amount of help when it came to receiving weapons deep down the field. but caught four 50-yard touchdowns from Brees. I dont get it. Drew Brees had a passer rating of 97.1 with 8,695 yards, 54 touchdowns and 27 interceptions in 29 games against the Falcons in his career. Had several overthrows when tasked with deep throws down sideline versus man coverage. (These can be subjective or hard to dissect from miscommunications at first glance.). Are these numbers consistent from year to year? Elos spread: Baltimore -3. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Even then, however, Smith wasn't the most surprisingly good downfield passer of 2017. Elo likes the Ravens at home here, giving them a 60 percent chance at the victory, but the teams are pretty evenly matched, and it should be an excellent defensive battle. SackSEER 2023: Is Tyree Wilson Overrated? He covers the Tennessee Titans for Music City Miracles on SB Nation, and also writes for the Minnesota Vikings website Purple PTSD. For example, let's say a quarterback threw 75 passes downfield, and on 56 of those passes he had a clean pocket. Stroud Falls to Colts in GTM's Final Mock Draft, Aaron Rodgers and the Jets: Low Floor, Low Ceiling, QBASE 2023: Why Bryce Young Tops C.J. All other NFL-related trademarks are trademarks of the National Football League. Do you have a sports website? Game flow and situation can only account for so much, and the Colts will be desperately hoping that isnt an indicator of his arm just being cooked. Stafford has 1614 adjusted yards in 86 attempts. Get complete game-by-game stats for quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. You don't expect a top receiver to let down his quarterback that many times. Bradys numbers were solid if not spectacular, and thats with nobody winning on a consistent basis. It would be great if the author would reveal which specific throws by quarterbacks were graded as accurate incompletions, or inaccurate completions. Completion percentage is a highly valued stat in football, and while that's included in the Deep Ball Project, a greater emphasis is played on accuracy percentage. That year, Brees led the league in passing yards and touchdowns on deep throws, going 32 for 58 with 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. Breess dominance isnt just defined by his place on all-time leaderboards, though, but rather by how many spots he occupies: He has four of the top six passing yardage seasons of all time and five of the top six completion percentage seasons. You can find the link to the 2017-18 Deep Ball Project here. His accuracy was sensational both under pressure and on passes into tight windows, and because he had a high number of accurate incompletions (tied with Cam Newton for the most in 19) with minimal interceptions and dropped picks, he had the highest efficiency score of any quarterback in 2017. Prescott's sophomore season has gotten a reputation as being a step down from his rookie campaign, but his downfield accuracy was actually terrific. Drew Brees Drew Brees QB | NFL Playoffs 9 New Orleans Saints Ht: 5' 11" Wt: 209. The pass is completed but the throw is inaccurate and forces the receiver to adjust. Well, head coach Bill O'Brien went away from the play-action, read-option offense he provided to Watson and gave Savage an offense that forced him to throw tight-window passes at the rate of Aaron Rodgers. Clicking on player names below will bring you to a more expanded section with more stats over at the Deep Ball Project website. Prison Camps for Grannies: Breaking Down Episode 6 of Succession. His dominance came in short bursts and prolonged excellence: He holds the record for most touchdown passes in a game and in a career. Drew Brees vs. Jameis Winston Stats | FantasyPros Not to mention that "inaccurate completions" and "accurate incompletions" are not straightforward like "dropped interceptions." Drew Brees played 287 games over his career. All rights reserved. All rights reserved. Please note that the four most important stats to consider are accuracy percentage (ACC%), Inaccurate Completions (INACC CMP), Accurate Incompletions (ACC INCMP), and Efficiency Score. None of those 8 shifted ranks from clearly-poor to clearly-good, but it's interesting nonetheless. Or, in what counted as a fairly-targeted pass (not hit, etc)). Only six quarterbacks went the entire season without throwing a single inaccurate completion: Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Nick Foles, and Jimmy Garoppolo. In addition to the efficiency score, are the situational splits (play action, open window, tight window, etc.) Heisman Voting: Drew Brees Career Playoff Stats | StatMuse Drew Lock was born in Columbia, MO. Get the latest career stats for Drew Brees of the on CBS Sports CBSSports.com 247Sports . Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. And, of course, that figure is also aided by Breess own vast knowledge of the Saints offensive system. From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? As a matter of policy, Sports Reference only reports the results of games as played on the field. You'd think those would more closely line up if every play was looked at. 7,142 Drew Brees 6,300 Brett Favre NFL All-Time Career QB Rushing Leader 6,109 Michael Vick 5,628 Cam Newton 4,982 Randall Cunningham As talented as quarterbacks are throwing the ball, there are also a select few that were able to run with it as well. Some of it comes down to Kamaras unique talent as a receiver; no other running back is even close to being as valuable a pass catcher, according to Football Outsiders Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement metric. Brown. A year ago, he was at the bottom end of nearly every list, particularly when it came to accuracy. If you're scouting college players and see Manziel lobbing up passes to Mike Evans and want that on your team, you get it by drafting Mike Evans, not Manziel. That's where the Deep Ball Project comes in, and it makes an effort to differentiate accuracy from completions. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints 48.4% completion percentage, 13.0 yards per attempt, 107.2 Passer Rating Few players throw a better deep ball than Drew Brees when he's at his best, but as he ages, his effectiveness and frequency of deep passing has declined. Drew Brees Career Stats | NFL.com Players Injuries Transactions Health & Safety NFL+ X NFL+ Draft Room Rhett Lewis is joined by Marc Ross, David Shaw and Cynthia Frelund to predict picks. Even with perfect and unbiased film charting, I don't think this can be tracked. The crazy thing is that Julio Jones had 12 of those 18 accurate incompletions. The encouraging sign for Panthers fans is that after a couple of games, Bridgewater did start to open up and take more shots, but even with those, only Garoppolo threw it deep less often. Even within the subset of deep passes, it would appear that Brissett is throwing a high number of deep balls that are even less likely to be completed than average. Unlock all tools and content including Player Grades, Fantasy, NFL Draft, Premium Stats, Greenline and DFS. Fandom; Futhead; Steph Curry Snuffed Out the Beam. Accuracy on off-balance throws doesn't mean too much considering the small sample size, but DeShone Kizer and Cam Newton (who had a great year passing the deep ball despite his health) ranked at the top. Even Mason Rudolph, who only started eight games, had six more deep shots than Garoppolo did all year. The big shock comes from the different situations faced by Texans quarterbacks Deshaun Watson and Tom Savage. Ultimately its just another part of Trubiskys game that has likely cost him the starting job in favor of Nick Foles, whose numbers last season may have been even worse than Trubiskys. To try and keep this relevant to all 32 NFL teams, we dug into the past a little bit for numbers on certain quarterbacks while the rest are 2019 numbers only. Darnold is now entering his third season of football with as many questions surrounding his prospects as there were when he was drafted. . drewbrees, PFR HOF Monitor: 140.58 (7th among QB, average HOF QB is 104.14). Only three quarterbacks lost more completions and only three quarterbacks lost more yards. posted a seven-year-high YPA (6th in NFL) and set a career low in interceptions as a starter, resulting in a career-high 115.7 passer rating. The Broncos on Monday picked up wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year rookie option. Jimmy Garoppolo had the highest percentage of clean pockets. His arm strength has steadily declined in recent seasons, and last year, his passes traveled shorter distances than any other NFL quarterback, with an intended air yards per target of 6.4 yards. What To Do About A Problem Like Dianne Feinstein? I wonder how his splits look over the course of the season. Drew Brees School: Purdue Position: QB Heisman Voting : 4th in 1999, 3rd in 2000 Draft: 2nd round, 32nd overall of the 2001 NFL draft by the San Diego Chargers 15 Drew Brees Overview Game Logs 2000 Career Splits 2000 Career Drew Brees NFL Stats On this page: Passing Rushing & Receiving Scoring Leaderboards, Awards, & Honors Full Site Menu Starter is currently injured and may not play. Did he peak in October or so and then decline? Todd McShay breaks down the Eagles' draft that netted them Jalen Carter and Nolan Smith among others. This is the fourth edition of the Deep Ball Project, which of course means I have been doing this since 2014. John Kinsley is on Twitter @brickwallblitz. The Broncos on Monday picked up wide receiver Jerry Jeudy's fifth-year rookie option. He was also fourth on play-action, only behind Dak Prescott, Aaron Rodgers, and Eli Manning. topg. NFL and the NFL shield design are registered trademarks of the National Football League.The team names, logos and uniform designs are registered trademarks of the teams indicated. Stephen A. Smith details why Lamar Jackson is better positioned for a Super Bowl run than Aaron Rodgers. Recent stars like Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson don't grade out nearly as well as people think due to the fact that both had poor accuracy on deep passes, to all depths. There is an entire five-minute video of Breess 70-yard touchdown passes, many of which are bombs thrown over the top. The Saints QB may be the greatest statistical passer of all time, but at this point in his career, his deep passes leave something (OK, a lot) to be desired. Tom Brady saw the second-highest rate of open-window passes. Simply put, its difficult to build an effective offense around short throws that disproportionately target players coming out of the backfield. Again, rankings out of 35 are in parentheses. Join our linker program. Derek Carr's quality of play takes a massive drop when he is not given clean pockets. NFL All-Time QB Records: Season and Career Leaders - Pro Football Network The 2017-18 edition includes much more than previous editions, but the most significant stat is Efficiency Score. Playcalling and quality of offensive line are going to affect one's perception of deep accuracy too. 1 rolling rating in our QB Elo metric, which I suspect is overstating things a bit but it does speak to his expectation-defying performance so far this season. And yet, the Saints are defying all that this season, with Brees passing well and the New Orleans offense once again ranking among the top 10 in EPA, as it has every season since Brees arrived in 2006. Jimmy Garoppolo has an excellent grade on these plays, but he attempted just 31 deep shots all season the fewest among full-time starting quarterbacks. In his defense, it wasnt all Goff, as the Rams had one of the worst offensive lines in football, and Goff often just didnt have the time to let deep plays develop. By the end of it, they were all hurt and he was tossing passes to a former college quarterback and AAF star in Greg Ward. If anything, the complaint was that he didn't know how to back off on the short throws. The reason his efficiency score doesn't rank higher is because he forced a giant amount of dropped picks for his sample size. View a side-by-side comparison of Drew Brees and Jameis Winston. The smallest sample size, but very close in attempts (31 for Cian, 28 for John), yet Cian had 6 less accurate attempts. Play-action bombs can be most effective on first down, when both offenses and defenses are programmed to think about remaining "on schedule" with 6- to 8-yard gains . More NFL Draft Takeaways. Hed go on to lead the league in deep throw passing yards four more times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012), completions on deep throws four times (2008, 2009, 2010, and 2012) and touchdowns on deep throws seven times, including six straight years from 2008 to 2013. Football Outsiders' Scott Kacsmar even named a specific statistic after Smith, measuring how aggressive or conservative quarterbacks were on third down. Henderson, who was already in New Orleans when Brees arrived, was the first. So he is not only as productive as Brisset but additionally gets you another 650 yards at a great yards per attemp rate. If you look at the situation rate splits, Brissett threw a relatively low proportion of his deep passes from clean pockets and into open windows, and threw a relatively high proportion of his deep passes under pressure and into tight windows. That is 21.4 yards/attemp. Another in the long line of it wasnt quite as bad as it seems for Baker Mayfield and the Browns. How big of a role did Sean Payton play in Drew . How each team ranks through Week 7 of the 2020 season, according to our quarterback-adjusted predictions. In that August story about Brees's. Pittsburgh is undefeated and has dominated with its defense, though Ben Roethlisberger (Elos 13th-ranked QB) may be starting to show his age after below-average games in three of his past four starts. than any other quarterback last year, and they came at the cost of just one turnover-worthy play. The six interceptions dragged his efficiency down, but he was the second-most accurate overall downfield passer. Peyton Manning vs Drew Brees Statistical Comparison. After all the passes are tallied up, the final number of points is divided by the amount of downfield passes. Drew Lock was born on November 10, 1996. In short, he was a lot of fun to watch and chart, as his accuracy across the boards was phenomenal. Drew Brees Stats | ESPN Get the latest updated stats for quarterback Drew Brees on ESPN. If his "inaccurate completions" were only completed at a league average rate, how much would his DYAR actually change? This year, that figure is down even further, sitting at just 4.9 yardsa yard and a half per throw lower than his league-worst number from last year. As Brees is close to catching Manning in some records thought I would put a comparison together between the two Qbs. Because they pose minimal danger over the top to keep defenses honest, you might think that Brees and the Saints would be struggling. For what it's worth, though, he handled the change to a vertical offense really well. Only Jimmy Garoppolo who benefits hugely from the scheme in San Francisco when it comes to deep shots had a higher adjusted completion rate on deep passes than Deshaun Watson last season. Drew Brees (13) for example. He finished with an overall quarterback rating of 84.9. Alex Smith had 1802 adjusted yards. Highest total QBR in a season among passers with fewer than 7.0 air yards per attempt and fewer than 8 percent of passes traveling at 20+ air yards, 2006-2020. ex: Kirk Cousins had pretty close accurate totals (32 vs 30 here), but had 17(!) Despite having the lowest average depth of target in the NFL last year, Brees thrived. Every throw that reaches at least 16 yards in the air is constituted as a downfield pass. Legends of DVOA: Drew Brees' Bombers | Football Outsiders However, Rivers did also suffer from the second-most drops in the league, and accounting for those drops jumps his completion rate up five places on its own. Drew Brees, (born January 15, 1979, Dallas, Texas, U.S.), American gridiron football quarterback who was one of the most prolific passers in National Football League (NFL) history and set numerous single-season and career passing records, including the all-time marks for pass completions, passing yards, and passing touchdowns. He led the NFL in completion percentage, had a 27-to-4 touchdown-to-interception ratio, and helped earn the Saints a 13-3 record (8-3 in Breess starts) and the top seed in the NFC. But two games into the 2020 season, its clear that his arm is no longer with us. He was the first player on the list to complete under 30% of his deep pass attempts and had one of the lowest yards per attempt figures in the league. (Even for Smith in 2014, 5.4 percent of his passes traveled at least 20 yards. The Day Kansas City Drafted Patrick Mahomes, Aidan O'Connell, Tanner McKee, and the Day 3 QBs, Jaxon Smith-Njigba Highlights Deep Class of WRs, Most Undervalued Players in a 2023 Fantasy Football Draft, Colts Take Will Levis in Latest Mock Draft. Roethlisberger was an excellent deep passer of the football that year, and that was contrasted starkly with the combination of Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges, who combined to replace him in 2019. Watch our How-To Videos to Become a Stathead, Subscribe to Stathead and get access to more data than you can imagine. Manning: 266 Games, 65.3% completion, 71,940 yards, 539 TDs, 251 Ints, QB . When was Drew Brees drafted? Murrays deep pass was one of his strengths in college, and he showed that it should still be a notable strength in the NFL, especially if his receivers can win more consistently on the outside and give him more reliable places to go with the football. Drew Brees, , - Career Stats - MLB - CBSSports.com Cousins had 16 big-time throws on his 61 deep attempts and suffered from three drops on those deep passes. But something changed in 2017. I haven't seen an explanation if how this is determined. There is a wider variety of scenarios that play into accurate passes aside from the typical uncontested drop. Find out more. From Joe Burrow to Chase Young, which players from the class of 2020 had their options picked up or declined? Bill O'Brien had zero excuses for taking away those calls from Savage. Interpreted as: Drew Brees deep ball passing accuracy career. Tyrod Taylor, like Smith, wasn't spectacular in accuracy but took outrageously good care of the football despite playing with arguably the worst receiving corps in the league, poor pass protection, and the second-highest rate of tight windows in the league. Where was Drew Lock born? All rights reserved. Does Brees still have this string to his bow? I never said the QB shouldn't throw the jump ball. Base on Balls (Walk) sb Stolen Bases . Steph Currys Flowers, Him Vs. That Guy, and Round 2 Elation With J. Kyle Mann. An "inaccurate" throw might be the QB prioritizing a safe throw instead of an "accurate" throw that's more likely to be intercepted as well as completed. With CeeDee Lamb added to the mix this year, he could appear even higher on this list come next season. Which teams crushed the draft, and which came up short? Ryan Tannehill of the Titans, for instance, doesnt go deep much more often than Brees, and he is also having a very good season. Winston was incredibly productive, but it always came at a cost, one that NFL teams have apparently decided is too much to live with for a while. He also showed impressive touch on passes of 25 to 29 yards and on passes of 35 to 39 yards, ranking in the top five in both ranges. Neil Paine was the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. Here are five questions that could determine that series outcome. Ryan lacked the stellar stats of his MVP year in 2016, but that's because the departure of Kyle Shanahan produced far fewer open windows and he had 18 accurate incompletions (accurate passes that the receiver failed to catch). While this is a surprise considering how bad the 49ers offensive line was last year, Kyle Shanahan's creative use of play-action and misdirection kept defenses guessing and made the pass protection look much better than it had any right to be. Breess throwing coach, Tom House, bragged to ESPN that this summer, Brees had built up his arm to the point where he was throwing the ball 57, 58 yards without even trying. Brees used to throw the ball that deep in games. You dont think ~90 gifs are enough for you to evaluate his opinion on whats an accurate vs inaccurate throw? (I'm guessing no, otherwise Kinsley would have mentioned it.) Tyrod Taylor was the only quarterback to be accurate on all of his passes to open windows. Tom Brady's relatively poor rating surprises me a bit, given what I perceived as one of his better downfield seasons. How tall is Drew Lock? Is Arizona Cardinals' Kyler Murray the best high school QB from Texas? Interpreted as: deep ball completion percent with a minimum of 1500 passing attempts leaders. These subjective to objective metrics never seem very accurate to me. Keenum was #1 in DYAR. Here are our grades for all 32 squads. There are 2-3 gif examples for every QB at his full website, including each QB's best downfield throw in his opinion: https://brickwallblitz.com/2018/03/28/the-2017-18-deep-ball-project/, In reply to Re: The Deep Ball Project by Toner. He led the league in completion rate on these passes by over 10 percentage points and in adjusted completion rate by 20 percentage points. And no QB in the entire sample had a season in which he threw a smaller share of passes 20 or more yards downfield than Breess 3.3 percent rate so far in 2020. Are Drew Brees's Days As a Deep-Ball Artist Behind Him? He didnt have a single turnover-worthy play on 49 deep shots as a rookie thats impressive. But the statistical evidence that Brees is either unwilling or unable to throw the ball deep is overwhelming.
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